Incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. Tom Cotton holds a nine-point lead over his Democratic challenger, Hallie Shoffner, according to a new poll released on Thursday, October 15, 2026. The Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College Poll surveyed 709 likely voters and has a margin of error of +/-5%.
Senate Race Breakdown
The poll found that 50% of likely voters would vote for Sen. Tom Cotton if the election were held today. Hallie Shoffner received 41% of the vote. Libertarian candidate Jeff Wadlin garnered 4.5%, with another 4.5% undecided.
Shifting Support Noted
These results represent a notable shift from a similar poll conducted in mid-August. In that earlier survey, Shoffner led Cotton 47.4% to 44%. Cotton has seen a six-point increase in support, while Shoffner's support has decreased by six points since the August poll. In the August poll, Wadlin had 3% and 5.6% were undecided.
Campaign Advertising Impact
The article suggests that the shift in support may be influenced by campaign advertising. "Since our poll results were released in August, we have seen a barrage of millions of dollars of ads spent in opposition to Shoffner and in support of Cotton," the report stated.
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